Event Brief
Kalshi odds for U.S.-Iran nuclear deal stay subdued
Filed: May 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
Summary: Prediction markets showed little change in odds for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal this year after a ceasefire report.
WHO: Kalshi traders
WHAT: Prediction markets kept odds for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by November around 55% after an Axios report on a ceasefire.
WHEN: May 28, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET
WHERE: USA
WHY: Traders assessed the ceasefire agreement reported by Axios, which still required further negotiations on nuclear demands and a 60-day memorandum of understanding.
ℹ️ This event is analyzed using pattern arcs, velocity indicators, and source analysis in our MI Console.
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