Event Brief
Oct 16, 2026 at 9:11 PM ET
Traders cut year-end Israel-Iran ceasefire odds to 45%
By The BriefBrief
Traders on Polymarket put the chance that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remains in force through Dec. 31 at 45%, down 12.5 percentage points in a week and 3.5 points in the past 24 hours. They assign it a 93.2% chance of lasting through Oct. 18 and 82.5% through Oct. 31. The contract resolves against the truce if either country carries out a direct air or long-range missile strike on the other.
WHO: Traders on Polymarket
WHAT: Traders lowered the market-implied chance that the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasts through year-end to 45%.
WHEN: Reported Oct 16, 2026 at 5:29 PM ET
WHERE: Location not specified
WHY: Talk of renewed strikes is growing, prompting traders to lower their year-end ceasefire odds.
Reporting from 1 identified publisher for this event.
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